$4,900
Year-end 2026 target, revised down from $5,400 after the spring fall.
Forecast · 19 June 2026
Why gold
Should some of your savings be in gold?
What gold has done over the past 25 years, the job it does in a portfolio, and the tax rules that make certain British coins unusually efficient to own.
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The starting point
Why people start looking at gold
Cash
Inflation ate the safe option
Inflation peaked at 11.1% in 2022 and stayed above target for years afterwards. Money that sat in a savings account through that period buys meaningfully less today.
Markets
Shares fall fast when it matters
The FTSE 100 lost 31% in 2008 and 14% in 2020. Most pensions and ISAs are built on shares and bonds, so the bad years arrive everywhere at once.
Money itself
A pound is a promise
Since 1971 no major currency has been backed by anything physical. Governments can create more money whenever they judge it necessary, and since 2008 they repeatedly have.
Gold is the traditional answer to all three. The question worth asking is whether it has earned the reputation.
Why now
What the serious money says about gold
Where the world's banks, central banks and rule-setters stand on gold, each position dated and issued since this spring's fall.
Central banks bought 863 tonnes of gold in 2025, and 45% say they plan to add more over the next year.
Central bank survey · 2026
Told clients to buy the June dip, holding a constructive twelve-month view on the metal.
Client note · 12 June 2026
No. 2
Gold passed the euro in 2024 to become the world's second-largest reserve asset, behind only the dollar.
ECB report · June 2025
$4,500 an ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026, its first target since abandoning the pre-crash $6,000 path.
Revised target · 3 July 2026
Held its $5,200 year-end target through the spring correction, one of the few banks not to cut.
Maintained · Q2 2026
0%
Risk weighting on allocated physical gold under Basel III banking rules. Banks may count it alongside cash.
Basel III · in force for UK banks since 2022
Portfolios holding 5 to 10% in gold have historically shown better risk-adjusted returns than those without.
Portfolio research · long-run data
Inflation peaked at 11.1% in October 2022, a 41-year high. Cash savings never got that back.
CPI · October 2022
+306%
Year-on-year rise in UK gold coin demand in the first quarter of 2025.
Q1 2025Price targets are opinions, and opinions get revised. The record below is what happened.
The record
25 years of gold, in pounds
One ounce of fine gold, in sterling, since 2000: four crises, one long rally, and this year's fall. Choose a moment below, or test a starting year of your own.
1 troy oz of fine gold · in pounds
×17 since 2000
Year-end prices 2000–2025 (approximate); the final point is the spot price on 10 July 2026. Sources: World Gold Council, LBMA. Past performance is not a guide to future returns.
What would £10,000 have done?
Drag to the year you might have bought
£169,444
+1,594%
Gold price only, excluding dealer premiums and any collectable value. Value at the spot price on 10 July 2026. Past performance is not a guide to future returns.
What it does
What gold actually does in a portfolio
It pays no income and it can fall for years at a time. People hold it anyway, for three reasons.
It is no one's debt
Shares depend on companies, bonds on borrowers, cash on banks. A gold coin in your hand depends on nobody staying solvent. That is why demand for it rises when trust falls.
Nobody can print more
Mining adds under 2% to the world's gold each year. When governments create money quickly, as they did after 2008 and in 2020, gold tends to hold its buying power while cash loses it.
It moves differently
Gold rose in 2008, 2020 and 2022, the three years this century when shares fell hardest. A holding that moves against the rest of your savings reduces the swings in the total.
How much do people hold? Most studies land on single-digit percentages of a portfolio. The right figure depends on individual circumstances, which is what a conversation with a specialist is for. Nothing here is personal financial advice.
Tax and ownership
Six things worth knowing about gold and tax
Most of the difference between doing this well and doing it badly comes down to tax, and to what you actually own.
Myth
All gold is taxed the same in the UK
UK legal-tender coins like the Britannia and Sovereign are exempt from Capital Gains Tax. Most other gold, and most other assets, are not.
Fact
Britannias and Sovereigns are CGT-free
They are UK legal tender, which makes any gain on sale exempt from Capital Gains Tax, whatever its size.
Myth
Bars get the same CGT break as coins
Bars are VAT-free as investment gold, but they are not legal tender, so they are not CGT-exempt. Only UK legal-tender coins are.
Fact
Coins can be gifted a few at a time
A gift can fall outside your estate after seven years, and CGT-free coins can be passed on without a Capital Gains Tax charge. Not tax advice; it depends on your circumstances.
Fact
An ETF is the price, not the gold
An ETF is paper exposure to the gold price. Physical coins are an asset in your name, in your hand or vaulted for you.
Fact
Gold pays no income
No interest, no dividends. Gold stores value rather than producing it. If income is your priority, gold is the wrong tool, and we will say so.
Choosing a form
Coins, bars, or an ETF?
All three track the same metal. They differ in tax, in what you own, and in what you can do with it.
| Feature | UK legal-tender coins | Gold bars | Gold ETFs |
|---|---|---|---|
| What you own | The coins, in your name | The bar, in your name | Units in a fund that holds bars |
| Capital Gains Tax | None on Britannias and Sovereigns | Payable above your allowance | Payable above your allowance |
| VAT | None on investment-grade coins | None on investment gold | None |
| Selling in stages | Coin by coin, as suits you | Only the whole bar | Unit by unit |
| Running costs | Optional vault storage | Optional vault storage | Annual fund fees |
| Beyond the metal | Graded and rare coins can be worth more than their gold content | Metal value only | Metal price only |
| Taking delivery | In your hand, or vaulted and insured in your name | In your hand, or vaulted | Retail units cannot usually be exchanged for metal |
Tax treatment depends on individual circumstances and can change. This is information, not advice.
Q·Questions answered
Frequently asked
The questions we are asked most often. For anything else, a specialist is one short call away.
Gold is about a quarter below its January 2026 peak as we write this. Whether that proves a good entry point or the start of a longer fall, nobody can honestly tell you. Two things help more than timing: buying for a decade rather than a month, and buying in stages rather than all at once. A specialist can talk through both.
Yes. Gold coins meeting the HMRC-defined purity standard of 22 carat or higher are exempt from VAT in the UK, and UK legal-tender coins are also free of Capital Gains Tax. Every coin we supply meets these standards.
You can choose fully insured next-day delivery to your door, or opt into our segregated vault storage with full audit rights. Either way your holding is allocated in your name and insured end-to-end.
Yes. Every client has access to our buy-back option at prevailing market rates, with settlement typically within 48 hours. We will purchase coins bought elsewhere, too.
Next step
Talk it through before you spend anything
Fifteen minutes with a specialist. Bring your questions, hear what a sensible holding might look like for your circumstances, and decide in your own time. If gold is not right for you, we will say so.