Gold’s 2026 Outlook: What Wall Street’s Bullish Forecasts Could Mean for Bullion Club Investors

Recent forecasts from major Wall Street banks suggest that gold’s record-breaking run may not be over yet – with some analysts seeing up to 20% further upside into 2026.

For UK investors – especially those using CGT-efficient Royal Mint coins – it’s worth translating those big institutional calls into plain English and asking: what does this environment actually mean for physical bullion and graded coins?

Currency note: All figures below are in US dollars (as used by the banks) with rough sterling equivalents in brackets, using an exchange rate of about $1 ≈ £0.75 as of early December 2025.

Where gold stands today

By late November, gold was trading around $4,187 (≈£3,140) per ounce, up roughly 57% year-to-date – one of its strongest performances in decades.

That move has been powered by a mix of:

• Heavy central bank buying, particularly from countries diversifying away from the US dollar
• Stubborn inflation and concerns about the real value of cash
• Macro and geopolitical worries – from deficits and tariffs to broader political risk

After a run like that, you might expect the consensus to be “it’s overdone”. Instead, many large banks still see more upside.

What the big banks are predicting

Bank of America: up to $5,000 (≈£3,750)

Analysts at Bank of America think gold could climb as high as $5,000 (≈£3,750) per ounce next year – around 19% above the recent ~$4,187 (~£3,140) level.

Their view is that the forces which pushed gold up – notably rising US deficit spending and unconventional macroeconomic policies – are still firmly in place. Until those underlying drivers change, they expect continued support for higher prices.

They also argue that, even after the rally, gold remains under-owned in long-term portfolios relative to its role as a monetary asset.

Goldman Sachs: targeting $4,900 (≈£3,675)

Goldman Sachs’ commodities team sees gold reaching around $4,900 (≈£3,675) per ounce by the end of next year.

They highlight two main pillars:

1. Central bank demand stays strong
   1. Reserve managers are looking for assets that can’t be frozen or sanctioned in the same way as foreign government bonds.
   2. Gold stored domestically fits that brief.
2. Rate cuts support non-yielding assets
   1. Markets expect the Fed and other central banks to cut rates over the coming year.
   2. Lower real yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold and can reignite the “debasement trade” – shifting out of fiat currency assets into scarce, real ones.

Goldman also notes that the gold market – particularly ETFs – is relatively small compared with government bond markets, so even modest reallocation flows can have an outsized impact on price.

Deutsche Bank: up to $4,950 (≈£3,710)

Deutsche Bank’s latest outlook suggests gold could reach a 2026 high of $4,950 (≈£3,710), with an average around $4,450 (≈£3,340).

Their case rests on:

• Stabilising investor flows after recent corrections
• Ongoing central bank and ETF demand absorbing a large share of new supply
• A “positive structural picture” for gold relative to other assets

HSBC: elevated but range-bound – $3,600–$4,400 (≈£2,700–£3,300)

HSBC is more cautious but still sees gold holding onto much of its recent gains, forecasting a 2026 trading range of roughly $3,600–$4,400 (≈£2,700–£3,300) per ounce.

They argue that:

• Structural forces – geopolitical risk, economic nationalism, tariffs, and questions over central bank independence – are likely to persist.
• These should help keep prices “elevated” versus pre-rally levels, even if the explosive upside momentum fades.

HSBC expects the rally to lose pace in the second half of 2026 as supply gradually responds and central banks potentially slow their buying once prices are well above $4,000 (≈£3,000).

What this means if you prefer coins to bars

If you’re reading this as a Bullion Club client or subscriber, you probably care less about futures curves and more about what this environment means for physical UK gold coins – especially those that can be free of Capital Gains Tax (CGT) for UK residents when structured correctly.

A few key takeaways:

1. The macro story still favours real assets

Pick any of the forecasts – $4,400 (≈£3,300), $4,900 (≈£3,675), or even $5,000 (≈£3,750) – and the common thread is that large institutions are not calling for a return to the old $1,500–$2,000 range any time soon.

Why? Because they expect:

• Ongoing currency debasement and high debt
• Persistent geopolitical uncertainty
• A world in which central banks themselves are price-insensitive buyers of gold

For long-term investors, that backdrop is supportive not just for bars, but for high-grade bullion coins – particularly UK legal-tender coins with additional advantages around CGT and collectability.

2. Volatility cuts both ways

Deutsche Bank and others emphasise that big bull runs don’t move in straight lines; sharp advances are often followed by phases of consolidation or correction.

For coin investors, that means:

• Short-term swings are normal – the intrinsic metal value of a coin will move with the spot price.
• Quality, grading and scarcity matter – premium coins can be partly insulated by collector demand, limited mintages and numismatic interest, rather than being pure “spot trackers”.

That’s why, at Bullion Club, we focus on high-grade, investment-grade coins, not generic scrap.

3. Your returns are in pounds, not dollars

Most of these forecasts are in US dollars – but your real-world experience as a UK investor is in sterling.

Even if gold reaches $5,000 (≈£3,750), your actual GBP return will depend on what happens to the GBP/USD exchange rate between now and then. A weaker pound boosts your return; a stronger pound can dampen it.

That’s another reason we look at FX trends and broader macro conditions, not just the headline gold price.

Where Bullion Club fits in

Bullion Club exists for investors who:

• Want exposure to gold through physical, CGT-efficient UK coins
• Care about grade, authenticity and provenance
• Prefer a long-term, wealth-preservation approach over short-term speculation
• If the banks are broadly right and we remain in a structurally higher gold regime – with the possibility of another 15–20% upside in dollar terms on top of already strong gains – then well-chosen physical coins remain a compelling way to:
• Hedge against inflation and currency risk
• Diversify away from purely financial assets
• Own something tangible, tradable and globally recognised as a store of value

None of this is a guarantee, and forecasts change. But it’s notable that, despite a huge rally, many of the world’s biggest institutions still take the bullish gold story seriously.